Now, focusing more on the different regions where coffee and cocoa are grown, what will be some of the impacts?
Well, it is very much crop and area specific. For instance, in Central America, changing weather patterns have already had disastrous effects on cocoa growing cycles. This region is expected to lose 40% of suitable land for coffee cultivation by 2050. Under this scenario, farmers with plots at lower altitudes are the most vulnerable. Also when it comes to coffee, the impact of climate change can already be felt on the ground. It affects flowering, maturation and fruiting.
A problem with coffee cultivation in Central America is that monoculture or single-crop farming is still much more common. There is a need for more diversification and agroforestry.
West Africa, which accounts for the world's largest share of cocoa production, is unfortunately is also characterised by monoculture and deforestation. Given the high dependence of the economies of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana on the production of cocoa, the high level of unpredictability of the effects of climate change come with many risks for the entire population.
The biggest difficulties are expected to arise in the forest-savannah transition zone within both Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. For many areas planting lots of shade trees, reversing deforestation and climate smart agricultural practices will bring some relief. Other areas will become completely unsuitable and will have to switch to other crops or see plots abandoned altogether. The danger is that a shift towards the South, West and East of the current West African cocoa belt could cause new deforestation waves.